Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.980232 1.145458 1.329758 1.550561 1.807945 2.098554 2.451708
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.710958 0.928439 1.198793 1.559569 2.028642 2.618332 3.416928
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.558340 0.789328 1.099547 1.546637 2.175017 3.027824 4.275508
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.459586 0.692982 1.026738 1.538788 2.305459 3.412637 5.137343
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.393880 0.627911 0.981210 1.553318 2.457977 3.836359 6.102999
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.328389 0.550227 0.901737 1.499106 2.490936 4.076249 6.812410
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.307075 0.538367 0.921366 1.601487 2.781971 4.752795 8.307407
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.263586 0.481963 0.858656 1.555415 2.815595 5.006127 9.121614
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.226612 0.430980 0.797241 1.501043 2.823925 5.211882 9.872869
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.196880 0.388582 0.744745 1.454201 2.836986 5.423424 10.656762
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.180880 0.369765 0.732866 1.481197 2.990723 5.910848 12.024063
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.175617 0.371203 0.759582 1.586359 3.309504 6.751228 14.193580
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.164031 0.358651 0.758011 1.636525 3.529078 7.433597 16.158185
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.149650 0.338235 0.737860 1.645663 3.665689 7.967421 17.893224
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.135170 0.315388 0.709251 1.631995 3.750092 8.399967 19.464829
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.122901 0.295697 0.684742 1.623713 3.844607 8.865158 21.172219
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.113727 0.281855 0.671420 1.639043 3.994875 9.473277 23.293332
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.100866 0.257283 0.629964 1.581845 3.965378 9.662564 24.440382
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.099326 0.260485 0.654931 1.689865 4.352492 10.887473 28.299510
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.089079 0.240045 0.619391 1.641255 4.340826 11.140253 29.738853
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.079543 0.220098 0.582449 1.583889 4.298660 11.310965 30.988737
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.071443 0.202853 0.550198 1.534467 4.270650 11.514071 32.353442
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.067606 0.196836 0.546814 1.562950 4.457633 12.305833 35.438944